Europe Economics Update EP elections to show rising reform fatigue Euro-sceptic parties are set to perform strongly at elections for the European Parliament. Although the result may have little impact on the institution itself, it risks undermining national... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki on hold, but rates to rise later this year Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6% at its meeting today, despite raising its medium-term forecasts for GDP growth. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will have to raise... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian elections unlikely to break the reform deadlock Upcoming elections in Belgium are unlikely to deliver a decisive victory to any one party. With the main parties divided over fundamental economic and political reforms, we doubt that a new coalition... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fragile recovery hampering Italy's belt tightening The unexpected drop in Italy’s GDP in Q1 underlines the fragility of the country’s recovery and further undermines attempts to bring down its crushing public debt load. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) Norway’s mainland economy continued to hum along at a decent pace in Q1, but the underlying drivers of growth are weakening. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 14) Norway’s mainland economy continued to hum along at a decent pace in Q1, but the underlying drivers of growth are weakening. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets' faith in Portugal seems misplaced Portugal’s clean exit from its bail-out at the weekend was soured by the news that the economy contracted in the first quarter. The GDP figures are not as worrying as they seem, but the Portuguese... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dismal Q1 suggests Finland will stagnate at best in 2014 The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dismal Q1 suggests Finland will stagnate at best in 2014 The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) March’s euro-zone trade data confirm that the strong level of the euro continues to act as a significant headwind for euro-zone exporters. This will furnish the ECB with yet another reason to take... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Milan office rents poised to recover? In the past few quarters, modest gains in services employment have helped to put a floor under Milan office rents. But the most recent employment expectations data have weakened and we doubt that the... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The disappointingly modest rise in euro-zone GDP in Q1 will have done little to reduce the risk of deflation in the region and the stark divergence between the major economies only adds to... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s recovery strengthened in Q1 The preliminary estimates of first quarter GDP for Central and South Eastern Europe provide further evidence of a gradual recovery in the region. The main factor behind the improvement in growth... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirmed that industry has made a weak start to 2014, underscoring the fragility of the recovery both in the sector and in the euro-zone economy as a... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May 14) The fifth consecutive decline in ZEW investor sentiment in May suggests that the German economic recovery might not gain much pace from here. 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
