Europe Commercial Property Update How will German logistics occupier demand fare this year? Despite Germany’s recent slowdown, logistics operators and customers report that market conditions are above average. And, despite our forecasts for overall soft economic growth this year, trade and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec. 14) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price and euro not all good for periphery The recent sharp drop in both the price of crude oil and the value of the euro should have some positive effect on euro-zone economic output. We think that, on balance, the peripheral countries should... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to focus on deflation, not politics Data last week, including the drop in HICP inflation to -0.2%, heightened the risk of a prolonged bout of deflation in the single currency area. But on the face of it at least, the escalating... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a Grexit mean for Asia? Problems in the euro-zone have been dragged back into the spotlight by the inconclusive recent presidential election in Greece. In general, Emerging Asia is well-placed to cope if the euro-zone does... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Low oil price drives up US high-yield corporate spreads The spreads over Treasuries of US high-yield corporate bonds have risen further since the end of November, continuing their increase since the autumn. This has largely been driven by a rise in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian logistics rental values unlikely to rebound this year Strong growth in Italian logistics occupier market activity suggests that rental values may finally have found a floor. Yet with the Italian economy set to stagnate this year, and with ample spare... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French and Spanish Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s country data on industrial production and trade suggest that the euro-zone’s major economies have continued to stagnate at best, increasing the threat of a prolonged bout of deflation in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a Grexit now more likely than ever? The absence of such intense market pressures suggests that the probability of an imminent Greek exit from the euro-zone is lower than it was in 2011 and 2012. But should market pressures reintensify... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC business and consumer survey did little to alter the picture of weak euro-zone GDP growth at the end of 2014 and suggested that renewed concerns about Greece and Russia offset the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in November, but fiscal consolidation is doing little to tackle debt ratios in some countries and they may only get worse if the euro-zone... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone deflation be good or bad? A bout of negative inflation could have some positive effects on the euro-zone economy by boosting real incomes and spending power. But the adverse effects on inflation expectations and peripheral... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why worry about deflation? The slump in the oil price means that headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the coming months in many advanced economies, just as it already has in the euro-zone. In general, deflation in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
