Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q1 15) The slowdown in Swedish GDP growth in Q1 came as little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But although the economy is still expanding, the breakdown was less than encouraging. Together with the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Non-European investors will continue to determine pricing dynamics Non-Europeans are playing an increasingly important role in driving property investment volumes in Europe. The weaker euro and reports that non-Europeans tend to have lower target returns suggests... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to keep foot hard on the QE pedal While no policy changes are in prospect at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 3rd June, markets will be watching closely for President Mario Draghi’s latest thoughts on the effectiveness of the Bank... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for May offered some assurance that the modest euro-zone recovery has continued despite the ongoing Greek crisis. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Prague and Warsaw to buck the positive trend in 2015 The Czech and Polish economies are motoring along nicely. However, the latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that our view, that solid demand fundamentals will be swamped by excess supply, causing rents... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger German recovery depends on export revival Last week’s data gave mixed signals about Germany. On the one hand, the second GDP release showed that Q1’s slowdown belied a strong domestic economy and May’s Ifo survey pointed to a pick-up in... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the yen remain undervalued? On several metrics, the yen appears to be the most undervalued major developed market currency: on a purchasing power parity basis and when its real effective exchange rate (REER) is compared to both... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) & GDP Breakdown (Q1) May’s small fall in the German Ifo business climate indicator left it consistent with pretty strong growth and came as a relief after bigger falls in other surveys. But the decline in businesses’... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB minutes reaffirm intention to see QE through The minutes (or “account”) of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 14th and 15th April underscored the message already given by Mario Draghi and colleagues, in the press conference after the meeting... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) China’s flash PMI remains subdued but the index rose for the first time since February, suggesting that recent policy stimulus could be starting to have an effect. Meanwhile, the uptick in the euro... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s flash euro-zone PMI survey echoed the message from other recent business surveys that growth in the currency union appears to have slowed again after the slight pick-up seen earlier in the year... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A Greek deal might be coming, but it’s only a stop-gap While a deal to address Greece’s near-term financing needs might soon emerge, this will be merely a stop-gap. The main challenge of finding a lasting solution to Greece’s debt problems lies ahead. 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
