Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from revival of Grexit concerns Whether or not Greece ultimately exits the euro, we expect the price of gold to be boosted further this year by the return of safe-haven demand as the country’s financial problems drag on. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets still complacent on Greece’s debt challenge Our concerns that the markets have been under-estimating the challenge faced by the new Syriza-led Greek Government and the Troika in trying to reach a mutually acceptable solution to Greece’s debt... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s drop in core euro-zone inflation to a record low brought further confirmation that deflationary pressures in the currency union go well beyond the effect of falling oil and energy prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q4 est.) While Spain’s economy continued to grow solidly in Q4 last year, deepening deflation pressures threaten to de-rail the recovery. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further will Moscow rental values fall? Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan.) January’s drop in German HICP inflation well into negative territory highlights the strength of deflationary pressures in even the euro-zone’s strongest economies. While falls in prices should prove... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) January’s small rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) did little to change the picture of very subdued growth in the euro-zone at the start of this year. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More to cheer than fear from “currency wars” The latest monetary easing in Europe and Asia has revived talk of “currency wars” and fuelled concerns about the impact of dollar strength on the US economy. But much of this talk seems unduly... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions continued to improve at the end of last year. But the recovery is still at an early stage, highlighting the need for the ECB’s latest... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Restructuring can’t transform Greece’s debt outlook Expectations that Greece’s fiscal problems can be addressed by a “restructuring” of its debts overlook the fact that most of the viable adjustments have already been made. Only a substantial write... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB QE to drive European commercial property yields lower still The real impact of the ECB’s new QE programme on GDP growth and occupier demand will initially be stymied by the Greek election results and the ensuing debt re-negotiations. However, investors will be... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise of populist parties unlikely to end austerity Syriza’s victory in the Greek general election may increase the influence of anti-austerity parties elsewhere in the euro-zone, most notably Podemos in Spain. But resistance from Germany seems set to... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE keep the euro under pressure? While the onset of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) is likely to weigh on the euro in time, exchange rates are two sides of a coin, so the fate of the currency will also depend on the prospects for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that fears about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy have so far been offset by the perceived benefits of a weaker euro and ECB... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
