Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cypriot success story comes with caveats Cyprus’ exit from its bailout and budding economic recovery are good news. But major challenges lie ahead in addressing non-performing loans and generating growth outside the financial services sector... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen offices set for solid, but unspectacular, rental growth We expect Denmark’s economic recovery to strengthen further, with employment growth in particular solidifying. This will drive a further pick-up in demand for offices and, although much of the new... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.) March’s falls in euro-zone business and consumer confidence support other evidence that the region’s slow recovery is losing pace. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that December’s interest rate cut by the ECB had only a small effect. While the Bank has since increased its stimulus, we doubt that this will boost money... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour market reform will restrict France’s recovery Although the French economy appeared to make a decent start to the year, surveys published this week supported our view that the recovery’s underlying momentum will remain very weak. And the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery back on track? Any economic effects of last week’s tragic terrorist attacks in Brussels clearly pale into insignificance compared to the loss of life and social consequences. But the direct economic impact seems... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further ECB stimuli will keep euro-zone property values rising Despite the ECB’s recent monetary loosening, we expect further stimulus measures will be required to reinvigorate growth and push inflation back towards its target. This will prove to be a net... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are ECB corporate bond purchases a game-changer? The prospect of ECB corporate bond purchases is already having a positive effect on firms’ financing costs. But we don’t think that this will be enough to generate a meaningful recovery in investment... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Refugee crisis is another threat to Greek bailout Greece and its creditors have reached some compromises that might allow the first bailout review to be concluded next month and negotiations over debt relief to begin. But the growing financial and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would a Brexit mean for Scotland? This Thursday marks the date that the Scottish government had pencilled in for “independence day” if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014’s independence referendum. So it seems a particularly... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs, German Ifo & ZEW (Mar.) The euro-zone PMI and German Ifo and ZEW surveys for March suggest that the slowdown in activity seen at the start of the year has eased, but the surveys still point to only modest growth in Q1 as a... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch retail rental growth rates upgraded Steady improvement in the Dutch consumer sector in the next few years will support expansionary retailer demand and drive rental growth rates above those we had previously forecast. We now expect... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
