Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish central bank needs to do more to defend euro peg The viability of Denmark’s currency peg with the euro has been called into question following the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling. We think that the Danish peg will... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW & Euro-zone Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment showed that confidence in the German economy was holding up well despite fears for Greece. But investors may take a dimmer view following this week’s Greek... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How will the Swiss franc’s appreciation affect property? Last week’s substantial Swiss franc appreciation has significantly dented the outlook for economic growth and occupier demand. It has also made Swiss property look even more expensive, especially to... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Swiss franc most overvalued DM currency after surge? The surge in the Swiss franc that followed the abandonment of the Swiss National Bank’s exchange rate ceiling against the euro means it is now the most overvalued of all the developed market (DM)... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly SNB move is a heavy blow for the Swiss economy The sharp appreciation of the franc caused by the Swiss National Bank’s abandonment of its currency ceiling last week led to a substantial drop in the domestic value of the SNB’s foreign currency... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of the SNB's change in policy The SNB’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling of 1.20 francs per euro sent shockwaves through the financial markets today. This Update provides some of our initial reactions. 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE may disappoint high expectations It is virtually certain that the ECB will announce some form of quantitative easing (QE) at its Governing Council meeting on January 22nd. But given the ECB’s natural caution and Germany’s objections... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower oil prices unlikely to drive French retail recovery in 2015 With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would euro-zone equities benefit from QE? The European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to announce a quantitative easing (QE) programme at its next policy meeting. However, we doubt that it would provide a large boost to euro-zone equities. The... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in November to another record high encouragingly reflected a small rise in exports rather than the weakness of imports, suggesting that exporters are... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small increase in euro-zone industrial production in November suggests that industry may well have fared better in Q4. But it does little to alter the picture of widespread weakness in the region... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
