Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q1 15) Although Iceland’s economy contracted in Q1, the continued strength of domestic demand means that the central bank is still likely to start raising interest rates at tomorrow’s policy meeting. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone office rental values set to grow at strongest rate since 2008 The boost to euro-zone office rents stemming from a pick up in economic growth and employment over the next year or so will be partially offset by high vacancy rates. Nevertheless, the fact that... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt relief is still the key obstacle to a Greek solution Greece and its creditors appear to be inching slowly towards each other on some elements of a potential deal to complete the current bailout. But deciding on and implementing the debt relief clearly... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s trio of economic tailwinds to fade Spain has benefitted from a trio of temporary tailwinds over the last year: the weaker euro, falling oil prices and a pause in fiscal austerity. So official forecasts may be wrong to assume that the... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Apr.) After a disappointing start to the year, April’s German industrial production and trade data both suggested that the economy will pick up steam in Q2. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink Greece’s decision to emulate Zambia and bundle its June IMF payments has allowed another “make or break” moment to pass without either. But the continued divergences between the country and its... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek debt plan does not reduce exit risks Greece’s new plan for “debt management and investment-led growth” is a much-needed attempt to look beyond the completion of the current bailout and find a more permanent resolution to the crisis. But... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Solid outlook for returns despite a handful of downgrades The non-euro-zone economies and property markets have generally started the year positively. We expect further improvement in GDP growth in most countries to support expansionary occupier demand, with... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values look set for their strongest annual gain since the crisis Compared to our last Analyst, we have moved up our rental growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016, reflecting limited development pipelines and upgrades to our macroeconomic forecasts. The rental upgrade... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forget the primary surplus, Greece’s debt is unsustainable The focus on the precise targets for the primary budget surplus in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors overlooks the fact that, unless the economy experiences a miracle, its debt ratio... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
