Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Unemployment (Nov.) December’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation into negative territory could herald the start of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation in the currency union, which may in turn threaten to re-ignite... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro weakness set to be sustained Recent strong downward pressure on the euro exchange rate might ease in the very near term. But further ahead, poor euro-zone growth, the implementation of quantitative easing and fears for the region... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are euro-zone property markets already looking weaker in 2015? Despite growing concerns about the euro-zone economic outlook, we expect rental growth to improve in 2015. Indeed, with the bund yield and the euro both falling further in the last month, there may be... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to December’s euro-zone PMI added to signs that the economy is barely expanding. And with the price indices highlighting the threat of deflation, the ECB remains under intense... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit dangers darken euro-zone outlook There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB finance a euro-zone investment fund? The idea that the ECB should finance a euro-zone investment fund instead of buying assets through a conventional quantitative easing programme has several potential benefits. But the scheme probably... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can Prague retail rental growth pick up steam? Given below-trend consumer spending growth in the Czech Republic until mid-2016, the short-term outlook is for only limited growth in retail rental values. While stronger growth will then push rents... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s the outlook for peripheral retail rental values? The outlook for consumption growth in the Southern peripheral euro-zone economies is fragile. Yet there seems potential for rents to rise, given that the current level offers decent value for... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the Norwegian krone now undervalued? Although the Norwegian krone is on course to be the worst performing G-10 currency this year, having depreciated by almost 20% against the US dollar since January, we doubt that it is now... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s German Ifo survey provided some comfort that recent overseas events have not yet hit the economy, but remains consistent with only weak rates of expansion. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Subdued German occupier demand offset by tight supply The subdued outlook for German GDP growth suggests that occupiers will be cautious with regard to expansion plans in 2015. Nevertheless, relatively tight office and retail supply conditions imply that... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Russian crisis push the euro-zone into recession? The euro-zone’s direct trade and financial links with Russia are relatively weak. Nonetheless, even a modest negative impact at a time when the region is already facing renewed internal problems could... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
