Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to the euro? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme appears unlikely to be big enough to push the euro down sharply. But the prospect of continued stagnation in the economy and impending monetary tightening... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment is an encouraging sign that confidence has so far not been hit by renewed problems in Greece, but the improvement is at odds with the weakness of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s flash euro-zone PMI survey suggested that the euro-zone economy probably lost steam in the fourth quarter and maintained the pressure on the ECB to deliver a major policy boost at its next... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets right to be worried about Syriza? The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would prolonged deflation affect euro-zone equities? It is tempting to think that a prolonged period of mild deflation in the euro-zone would be terrible news for equities. After all, Japan’s stock market generally fared poorly for much of the time... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QE We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone industrial data for October and employment figures for Q3 confirmed that, even before the resurgence of the Greek crisis and associated political and economic uncertainty, underlying... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How low will Copenhagen property yields fall this time around? Historically low bond yields and a gradually improving rental growth outlook should mean that prime office yields set new lows in this cycle. However, in the absence of frenzied lending on Danish real... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s small gain in GDP in Q3 leaves it on track to expand by close to 5% this year. But the published data may exaggerate the underlying strength of the economy. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Nov.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Nov. 14) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland prepares to lift capital controls but delays likely The Icelandic Government’s preparations to scale back capital controls early next year certainly represent a positive first step towards lifting the restrictions. However, we remain cautious at this... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
