Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark outperforms in Q2 News that Danish GDP contracted by 7.4% q/q in Q2 leaves us happy with our forecast that it will fall by only around 3% this calendar year – a much smaller contraction than we expect in the euro-zone... 14th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Recovery on track after comparatively shallow slump Compared to many of the larger euro-zone countries, the coronavirus remains relatively well under control in the Nordic countries and Switzerland. With the exception of Denmark, there are at this... 13th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to maintain the status quo The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday (20th August), and we expect it to reiterate that it is in no rush to tighten policy. 13th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Yield compression still on the cards next year With accommodative monetary policy anchoring bond yields, we think that yield compression in the euro-zone is set to resume next year. But the balance of risks have clearly changed post-virus. 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Key lessons from Sweden’s Covid response Sweden’s unique response to the pandemic means that it has acted as a control experiment for economists and epidemiologists alike. We suspect that its economy would have shrunk by an additional 3-4%... 12th August 2020 · 18 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) Swedish headline inflation would have fallen further in July had it not been for temporary effects related to car rental prices. And while core inflation edged up from June, against a backdrop of... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Revising our 2020 European investment forecasts Despite sharply lower investment in Q2, solid Q1 activity and the faster-than-expected economic recovery means we now think that total pan-Europe (ex UK) investment in 2020 will be only around 15%... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy recovering well, but second wave fears grow Official data for June show that the euro-zone economy was recovering from the lockdowns at a decent pace at the end of Q2 and business surveys for July point to this continuing at the start of Q3... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (June) Despite another substantial increase in June, driven by the auto sector, industrial output in Germany remained well below its pre-crisis level. The recovery should continue in the coming months, but... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least... 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Growing risk of a second wave The economy is set to rebound strongly in the current quarter after its 12% slump in Q2, even if there is no further increase in GDP in August and September. Indeed, some of the high frequency data... 6th August 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July) Euro-zone retail sales reached their pre-crisis level in June and July’s final PMIs confirmed that the broader recovery continued at the start of Q3. But other parts of the economy won’t have... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q2) The sharp contraction in the Swedish economy in Q2 confirms that it has not been immune to Covid, despite the government’s well-documented light-touch lockdown. Nonetheless, the economic crunch over... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data highlight divergence across the euro-zone The economic data published this week confirm that euro-zone member states have had very different experiences of the virus so far. This is likely to continue, with Germany outperforming and Spain... 31st July 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No sign of let-up in Nordic retail recovery The lack of a see-saw pattern in Nordic retail sales data since February stands in stark contrast to the situation in Switzerland and supports our view that the Nordic economies have fared... 31st July 2020 · 6 mins read
