UK Economics Labour shortages to push up wages for a bit longer The latest data suggest that the upward pressure on wage growth from labour shortages has a bit further to run. Admittedly, the discovery of the Omicron variant has clouded the near-term outlook for... 30th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yield compression to continue into 2022 After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron: implications for the euro-zone It is still very early days in assessing the effects of the latest Covid variant, but we suspect that Omicron has the capacity to cause a new decline in economic activity in the coming months but that... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Omicron – The risks to GDP and for the BoE The restrictions announced by the government on Saturday in response to the new Omicron COVID-19 variant increase the downside risks to our GDP forecasts and the chances that the Bank of England... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.) The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen, but office and retail still fair value Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. The decline in government bond yields since then, which... 29th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.) A drop in repayments and rise in development activity resulted in positive net lending in October for the first time since March. Despite this turnaround, credit conditions will remain tight and... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Mortgage approvals remained robust in October after the end of the stamp duty holiday, only easing back into line with their pre-pandemic average. With demand strong, we suspect that mortgage... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (November) Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Oct.) The rise in consumer credit in October adds to evidence that economic activity fared well at the start of Q4. But that no longer offers much comfort in light of the discovery of the new Omicron... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 300,000 supply target remains out of reach The most comprehensive statistics on housing supply confirmed that the pause in construction in Q2 2020 caused completions of new homes to drop back. Housebuilding activity has since recovered but... 29th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The resilience of the commercial property market has led to further upgrades to the IPF Consensus view for this year, albeit still below our forecast. Beyond this year, we are more downbeat about the... 26th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to... 26th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish It is too early to judge how serious the B.1.1.529 variant will turn out to be, but it certainly reinforces the case for central banks to be ultra-cautious when withdrawing their policy support. We... 26th November 2021 · 11 mins read
