Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No sign of let-up in Nordic retail recovery The lack of a see-saw pattern in Nordic retail sales data since February stands in stark contrast to the situation in Switzerland and supports our view that the Nordic economies have fared... 31st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q2) The record plunge in Spain’s GDP of 18.5% q/q is likely to have been one of the biggest falls of any euro-zone country in Q2, illustrating the severity of the country’s lockdown and its slow and... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q2) While the catastrophic collapse in French Q2 GDP was hardly a shock given the country’s stringent lockdown, it still highlights the sheer extent of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic. High... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is WFH a double-edged sword for Dutch offices? A more favourable economic outlook should support occupier demand and thereby prime Dutch office rents over the next few years. And while the shift to more remote working poses a risk, we think that... 31st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Decline in tourism to weigh on southern economies A combination of official travel restrictions and caution from holidaymakers is likely to hit Spain, Greece and Portugal particularly hard. Germany should get off lightly thanks to its comparatively... 30th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in cases a further blow to Spain’s weak recovery Spain’s economic recovery was already set to be one of the weakest in the euro-zone but the resurgence in virus cases over the past week and subsequent re-imposition of restrictions deals a fresh blow... 29th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (July) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in July suggests the recovery there continued to gather pace at the start of Q3. That said, the rise in consumption appears to be slowing, and... 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The message from the Ifo Business Climate Index chimes with that from the PMIs published last week and suggests that the rebound in the German economy continued at a steady pace in July. 27th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Unpicking Sweden’s labour data; DNB to cut again The larger-than-expected increase in Swedish unemployment in July was not as bad as it first appeared given that it mainly reflected fewer summer jobs this year. While Sweden has not been immune from... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) The sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. But we suspect that activity will remain below... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (July) The small fall in euro-zone consumer confidence in July is consistent with the message from high frequency data that the recovery in spending may already be slowing. 23rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Landlords better positioned this time Although banks expect to tighten lending standards, we think that the underlying situation is much better than pre-GFC and that government schemes will continue to provide support, which should limit... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Nordics set for shallowest recessions in Europe The Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis comparatively well, and if our above-consensus forecasts for GDP growth this year prove accurate, the region will see some of the smallest falls in... 21st July 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow and uneven recovery The economy has partially recovered from the impact of the coronavirus containment measures imposed earlier in the year, but it will be a long time before it gets back to normal. Even if there are no... 21st July 2020 · 36 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More fiscal and monetary stimulus to come We doubt that EU leaders reach a final deal on the proposed Recovery Fund at the conference which its taking place today and tomorrow in Brussels, though a deal is likely eventually. In any case, most... 17th July 2020 · 6 mins read
