UK Economics Weekly New virus strain carries dual risks to activity and inflation The new COVID-19 variant creates the dual risk of weaker near-term activity and, by exacerbating current shortages, the possibility that inflation remains higher for longer. This may make some MPC... 26th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SPR release, Turkey exposure, Egypt price adjustments The US-led release of oil reserves earlier this week did little to bring down the price of oil as President Biden would have hoped and, if anything, could provoke OPEC+ to raise oil production more... 25th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update PEPP not guaranteed to end in March The account of October’s ECB meeting suggests that it is by no means guaranteed that net PEPP purchases will end in March. And even if they do, the Bank may well leave open the possibility of re... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are flexible offices making a comeback? Over the last two years, serviced offices have seen more upheaval than most other real estate sectors. But there have been some encouraging signs over recent quarters and long-term trends may have... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recoveries enter a more difficult phase Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank injects a dash of hawkishness In comparison to the chaotic scenes in the Riksdag yesterday, the Riksbank’s November meeting was a more sedate affair. While the Bank is in no rush to raise the repo rate, the insertion of a rate... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Contagion from Turkey’s crisis likely to remain limited Spillovers to other emerging markets from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure. 24th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops” The Turkish lira’s sharp fall yesterday looks similar to the experience of sudden stops elsewhere. In those instances, central banks usually responded with interest rate hikes of around 600bp as well... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Export woes not just a Brexit story Brexit is undoubtedly a factor behind the slower post-pandemic recovery in UK exports relative to elsewhere. But doesn’t appear to be the sole reason. Instead, pandemic effects may explain at least... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Where is all the stock? Estate agents undoubtedly have a very limited number of homes on the books. But the idea that the lack of supply is due to few homes being put up for sale is a misconception. High numbers of... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A mild winter doesn’t change our price outlook We have left our near-term forecasts for energy prices (which are historically high) unchanged after reflecting on the latest weather forecasts for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyclical pressures set to keep CEE inflation elevated Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has continued to surge and now sits at its highest level in around 20 years. This can be partly attributed to global factors, such as rising energy... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
