Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB makes its case (again) While we doubt that anything conclusive will be agreed at the EU summit this weekend, the likelihood of a joint fiscal package being signed off in due course is consistent with our view that the Swiss... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to remain in dovish mode At the press conference following today’s Governing Council meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde dampened any suggestion that the Bank may not use the full €1.35 trillion in its emergency purchase... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Better jobs picture will not spare office rents Despite the apparent strength of the euro-zone labour market in early Q2 data and the office sector’s inherent resilience, we still expect prime rents to fall this year on the back of the weak economy... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perky PMIs and a Riksbank surprise The June PMI surveys from the Nordics add to the evidence that the region’s economies are further down the road to recovery than others in Europe. Next week, mainland GDP data from Norway for May will... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly V-shaped after all? News that German consumers went on a spending spree in May has raised hopes that the recovery will be V-shaped after all, but the wider economy will not get back to normal for a long time yet. Next... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Luxury retail and tourism hit double whammy for Paris The hit to the luxury retail market and prolonged weakness in international tourism will cause Paris prime retail rents to decline this year for the first time since 2009. Although some rental... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU rescue fund no match for Hamilton’s handiwork While the proposed joint EU fiscal response has been hailed by some as a “Hamilton moment”, the central budget will be just one-quarter as large as a share of GDP as US federal firepower was in the... 29th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Yield rises to reverse, except for retail The sharp reduction in economic activity over the first half of the year and prolonged uncertainty have negatively impacted investment activity and occupier demand. We expect this will flow through to... 26th June 2020 · 18 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How has office output fared? Even though working from home has meant business as usual for many office occupiers, weak activity elsewhere has still caused euro-zone office output to fall. With the economic recovery expected to be... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Scandi offices to prove more resilient than euro-zone Timely activity indicators suggest that the Scandinavian economies are already on the gradual path to normality, which will provide support to occupier demand and, in turn, prime office rents this... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Southern Europe leads valuation deterioration The broad-based jump in equity dividend yields following the virus-driven collapse in equity prices meant that property valuations deteriorated in Q1. This impact was exacerbated in southern Europe... 4th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Crash in cross-border flows to hit southern Europe hard Markets that are most reliant on international capital will inevitably bear the brunt of the collapse in cross-border flows as investors remain very cautious in the face of COVID-19-related... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which retail markets are most exposed to COVID-19? Before the virus outbreak, falls in prime retail rents were expected to be concentrated in Northern European markets. Now rental falls are likely to spread throughout Southern and Central Eastern... 14th May 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update German Cash for Clunkers 2.0 won’t be a silver bullet Now that restrictions are being lifted, governments are inevitably facing calls to ensure that firms emerging from virus-imposed stasis have sufficient demand to stay open – not least in the German... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
