Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Oct.) October’s euro-zone inflation data confirm that core price pressures are weaker than in other advanced economies. That said, we think headline inflation will remain above 2% until late 2022. 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB drops a bombshell as it pledges faster tightening Investors were initially disappointed following the decision by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) to raise its base rate by only 30bp (to 2.10%) today, but the hawkish post-meeting communications and a... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q3 2021) Israel’s economy slowed much more sharply than expected in Q3 as a shift in consumption habits away from goods and a fading of the re-opening boost to services caused a marked slowdown in consumption... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage indexation won’t drive second round effects The current bout of high inflation will put much less direct upward pressure on negotiated wages in the euro-zone than in previous such episodes. This is because far fewer agreements now contain... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery picks up pace The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly... 16th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2021) The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally undershot expectations and suggest that economies entered Q4 with a clear loss of momentum. With supply disruptions set to persist and... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) This labour market release is the first of two before the Bank of England’s December policy meeting and it suggests that the labour market remained tight after the furlough scheme ended. If the story... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Oct.) The much-weaker-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Israel in October was due to a sharp fall in airfares, but the big picture is that underlying inflation pressures generally remain soft. We don... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB will persist with QE and negative rates for years We expect the ECB to interpret a period of above-target inflation as “transient” even if it lasts for well over a year. Although it will end its emergency PEPP programme next March, the Bank will step... 15th November 2021 · 25 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus still underestimating impact of remote work The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) CPIF inflation rose to a 15-year high in October, although the headline rate was just half that reached in the US, for example, and the core rate remained below 2%. Policymakers won’t be losing sleep... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to continue to underperform as growth headwinds mount The GDP data released this week indicated that in Q3 households were still having a better time than businesses. But consumer spending growth will probably start to weaken before too long as higher... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
