Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) After dipping below 2% in June euro-zone inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, led by higher inflation in Germany. But we think it will drop back early next year and remain low... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices to maintain lead over Lyon Tighter supply conditions and the expected smaller hit from the shift to remote working mean that we think Paris office rents will continue to outperform Lyon over the next five years. 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to stay on hold; Swiss Saturday Night Fever With the Swedish economy going great guns but little sign of inflationary trouble on the horizon, we expect the Riksbank to maintain the status quo at its policy meeting next Thursday. Otherwise, the... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s less hawkish stance relative to the Fed likely to persist With few signs the Fed’s hawkishness at its May meeting has spread to the Bank of England, we think that the downward revision to market interest rate expectations has much further to go. While we... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The further slowdown in the money supply growth in May is due to big changes during the first lockdown dropping out of the annual comparison. Money supply data will be affected by the pandemic for a... 25th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial still a bright spot With virus restrictions set to be eased further, we expect the recovery in economic activity to gather pace from Q3, which should give occupier markets a lift. But the pick-up will not be enough to... 25th June 2021 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Update Travel restrictions pour cold water on Spanish tourism Lingering restrictions on international travel to control the spread of the Delta variant mean that Spanish foreign tourist revenues this year will probably be only half what they were in 2019. That... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Upgrades to Scandi industrial values With the recovery in economic activity already underway and further easing in virus restrictions to come, the outlook for occupier demand is encouraging. However, with structural factors also at play... 24th June 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB starts lift-off, aggressive tightening cycle in store The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.50% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications support our view that this marks the start of what will be the most... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How likely is a hawkish surprise by the ECB? Last week’s surprise change in the Fed’s guidance about how soon it is likely to raise its key policy rate raises the question of whether the ECB will follow suit. In our view, although the euro-zone... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a short, sharp tightening cycle takes hold Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised interest rates by 30bp today and with inflation set to remain above the MNB’s 4% upper tolerance level well into 2022, we expect an additional 60bp of tightening at... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish retail sales rebounded strongly in May as restrictions were lifted, while industry continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP looks set to return to its pre-virus level in Q2 and we expect the... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
