Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will PM Sunak usher in a period of calm after the storm? Given all the turbulence in the UK’s government bond market over the past month or so, the limited reaction to today’s news that Rishi Sunak will be its next prime minister (PM) may seem surprising... 24th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Europe’s renewables push to stoke “greenflation” Although the energy crisis in Europe has dealt a blow to the EU’s near-term green ambitions, a combination of economic incentives, NextGenEU funding, and geopolitical expediency will cause the bloc to... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: moderate finance minister won’t save BTPs Italy’s new government may initially steer clear of major fiscal loosening, but it will have to provide some more support to cushion the blow from the energy crisis. Given Italy’s fiscal... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens rent growth to slow but will outpace euro-zone We have downgraded our expectations for Athens prime rental growth over the next two years on the back of a weaker outlook for economic activity. However, with the Greek economy still expected to be... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October) The flash PMIs for October provide yet more evidence that the euro-zone is sliding into quite a deep recession but that inflationary pressures remain intense. 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates unlikely to reverse recent jump While interest rates are unlikely to rise as high as investors expected in the immediate aftermath of the “mini budget”, those hoping that the surge in mortgage rates since will be reversed are likely... 21st October 2022 · 10 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi out, Meloni in; new EZ forecasts We published our latest quarterly Euro-zone Economic Outlook this week, with the main message being that we now expect the euro-zone to experience an even more extreme case of stagflation. Otherwise... 21st October 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) September’s industrial production and retail sales figures out of Poland showed that activity continued to recover last month. Even so, it may be touch-and-go as to whether Poland’s economy was... 21st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Focus What to make of the sterling quagmire While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further... 20th October 2022 · 12 mins read
ECB Watch Strong case for 100bp rate hike The ECB is certain to opt for another bumper rate hike next week and, on balance, we think that policymakers are most likely to go for 100bp. A hike of that size will probably be a one-off as they... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economic Outlook High inflation and interest rates to hit economy hard The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from... 20th October 2022 · 27 mins read
