Europe Commercial Property Update Budapest retail set to outperform CEE after 2021 After declining in 2021, we think that favourable supply conditions and a rebound in consumer spending will support a recovery in Budapest retail rents into next year. And while the sharp increase in... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cross-border capital recovery to prove slow in 2021 Travel restrictions will hold back cross-border capital flows until at least H2. And given that we expect extra-European capital to return particularly slowly, total investment is set to recover... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Southern European underperformance to continue Despite a more supportive outlook for property valuations, we think that weaker rental prospects will result in southern European property markets continuing to underperform into 2022. 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions on the EU’s carbon border tax Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’)... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: No rise in all-property values in 2021 The Swiss and Scandinavian economies and their property markets are likely to weather the pandemic better than many others in Western Europe. We expect all-property values in the region to hold steady... 25th March 2021 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece: easing no game changer, yet The easing of virus restrictions in Greece this week – despite rising case numbers – is unlikely to change the picture for Q1; the economy probably contracted. Moreover, if it leads to a faster spread... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Are data centres a viable alternative? Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hawkish Norges Bank to help push NOK higher You don’t need to be a mind reader to figure out what the Norges Bank is thinking, and it now expects to start raising interest rates in late 2021. As it happens, given the momentum in oil prices and... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Pandemic hit mild by past standards, but recovery slow Euro-zone prime property will likely get off more mildly than many expected at the start of the pandemic. We forecast another small fall in all-property capital values this year, with yields holding... 18th March 2021 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB promises more, but keeps it flexible The ECB’s policy statement this week pledges more support, but leaves plenty of room for disputes over the meanings of a “significantly higher pace” of asset purchases and “favourable” financing... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Brace yourself for a more hawkish Norges Bank We think that the Norges Bank will bring forward the projected start date of interest rate hikes next Thursday, and there is a chance that it could re-tighten macroprudential policy too. Meanwhile, we... 12th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack ECB holds the key for Swedish and Swiss yields The increases in Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian government bond yields over the past month or so have illustrated the extent to which smaller bond markets get dragged around by global conditions. As... 11th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Estimating the natural vacancy rate in European offices Given that the natural vacancy rate (NVR) provides a better gauge of office market conditions than the absolute vacancy rate, we set out to estimate the NVR across European office markets. Future... 11th March 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands to continue to outperform Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4, Final) The third estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy contracted a little in Q4 2020, driven by weaker consumer spending. Ongoing restrictions mean that another fall in GDP is likely in Q1... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Outlook for property valuations still supportive With bond and equity dividend yields trending lower, valuations improved in Q4 for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. But in Q1, given the recent bond market rout, valuations... 8th March 2021 · 7 mins read
