UK Economics Real wage squeeze unlikely to be a rerun of 2008-14 The looming squeeze on real wages means that the near-term outlook for consumption and GDP has weakened. That said, we don’t expect anything as bad as the squeeze in 2008-14. In fact, real household... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial yield falls set to slow The industrial sector had its best year in over three decades in 2021 as demand soared and supply struggled to keep up. Although we expect the sector to perform well again this year, we don’t think... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: rates held in pursuit of “new economic model” Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) followed kept its one-week repo rate on hold at 14.00% today and, even though inflation is likely to breach 40% in the coming months, President Erdogan is unlikely to... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) Euro-zone inflation is likely to have peaked at 5% in December, with energy inflation set to fall sharply this year. But we think that core inflation will settle at around 2%, prompting the ECB to... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will resume hikes in March After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The anatomy of the pandemic price boom A breakdown of house price growth over the past two years confirms that remote working has altered the nation’s housing needs. But what households can afford, rather than what they desire, will be a... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (December) Final inflation data for December showed that the decline in Germany’s HICP inflation rate to 5.7% was due to energy and services. We expect both headline and core inflation to fall this year, but... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Dec.) After rising from 5.1% in November to 5.4% in December, CPI inflation is now further above the Bank of England’s target than at any point since the UK first adopted an inflation target in October 1992... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year. 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB rate hike unlikely to move the needle for property While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The labour market appears to have tightened after the end of the furlough scheme and at the start of the Omicron wave. So even though real wages are now falling and will decline further, we still... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank to have to change tack The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in... 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
