Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden GDP Indicator (Q2) & ETI (Jul.) The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June showed that the economy expanded at a solid pace in Q2, with overall GDP probably returning to just shy of its pre-pandemic level. While the re-opening boost will fade... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) The drop back in the Nationwide house price inflation in July suggests that the tapering of the stamp duty holiday has taken a little heat out of the market. But as the tax break was just one of many... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB steps up front-loaded tightening cycle The larger-than-expected 30bp interest rate hike by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) today was accompanied by hawkish comments that send a strong message about its intention to bring inflation back to its... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Strong momentum not expected to last The acceleration in all-property capital growth in June reflected a sharp fall in yields and strong rental growth. But, even as a fast economic rebound boosts occupier demand in the coming months, we... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) The second consecutive decline in the flash composite PMI in July came as no surprise to us as we expected the pace of the economic recovery to naturally slow after the big gains following the... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the Delta variant: what we know so far A rise in virus cases in Israel has prompted the government to re-impose restrictions on activity, including mask mandates and vaccine certification for large events. There are signs that the Pfizer... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jun.) The underlying trend in retail sales volumes is a bit weaker than the 0.5% m/m rise in June suggests. And other evidence indicates that the resurgence in the virus and the “pingdemic” may have taken... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics ECB reinforces commitment to keep rates low The ECB followed through on its strategy review today by raising the bar for interest rate hikes in language which was probably a touch more dovish than expected. The Bank made no change to its... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets to regain their poise as recoveries continue While the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that has recently weighted on UK equities, the pound and 10-year gilt yields is clearly a downside risk, our view that it won’t deal a big blow to the global or... 22nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
