UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s drop in CPI inflation is likely to be followed by sharp rises in the next few months, taking inflation to a peak of about 4.5% by the end of the year. But provided the spike in inflation does... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The strong growth in the euro-zone GDP in Q2 is likely to be repeated in Q3 despite the spread of the Delta variant, and should bring the economy back towards its pre-virus size in the coming months... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2021) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the regional recovery gathered pace last quarter as economies reopened following virus waves in Q1. We expect the recovery to remain strong... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) The latest batch of data brought signs that labour shortages are feeding through into higher pay growth in certain sectors. But underlying pay pressures were reasonably contained overall, and we... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Slight worsening in property valuations On our measure, property looked slightly worse value relative to bond and equities in Q2. The worsening was due to a marked fall in property yields, driven by the industrial sector. Outside of over... 16th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 15.4% annualised expansion in Israeli GDP in Q2 took the economy to more than 3% above its pre-pandemic level. While we expect growth to slow markedly in Q3 as the re-opening... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What if we are wrong about interest rates? While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) became more hawkish at its August meeting, an increase in interest rates on the scale it expects would not undermine house prices. But more stubborn inflation... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Luxury won’t shield Paris retailers from e-commerce We expect prime retail rents in both Lyon and Paris to struggle to make up lost ground this year, and even after a return to growth next year, the pace of increases will be subdued. 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 10.3% y/y expansion in Russian GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic level as growth was driven by broad-based strength across sectors. Growth is... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics June’s resilience won’t last as virus disruptions hit The 1.0% m/m rise in GDP in June was an impressive result. But we suspect that GDP growth in Q3 will be closer to 2.0% q/q than the 2.9% q/q forecast by the Bank of England. And we still think that... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q2 2021) The 1.9% q/q expansion in Poland’s GDP in Q2 left the economy 0.5% above its pre-pandemic size and we expect another strong reading for Q3 as activity in consumer-facing sectors continues to recover... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
