Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left interest rates on hold at 19.00% today and, with inflation likely to remain elevated over the coming months and the economy having bounced back quickly from May’s... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norges Bank treading water before taking the plunge The Norges Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold at zero next Thursday (19 th August), but it will almost certainly start to raise them, and tighten macroprudential policy further, in September. 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (June) The second successive monthly fall in euro-zone industrial production in June was largely due to ongoing supply-chain difficulties in Germany. As these will ease only slowly, we don’t expect industry... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jun. & Q2) The media headlines have focused on the big 4.8% q/q gain in GDP in Q2, following Q1’s 1.6% q/q fall. But the real news was the unexpectedly strong growth in June which suggested that the recovery... 12th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for June confirm that the economy bounced back quickly from May’s three-week lockdown. This, coming alongside the further jump in inflation in... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail yield stabilisation not a sign of a turning point Following larger-than-expected falls in Q2 and positive near-term developments, we expect prime office and industrial yields to end the year lower than previously forecast. However, we think prime... 11th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What will COVID-19 mean for the largest global cities? Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that... 10th August 2021 · 20 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Economy and policy to provide a bit less support The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened... 9th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Russia’s lending boom: time to ring the alarm bells? The strength of mortgage and unsecured consumer lending in Russia has concerned the central bank and raises the threat of a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, but for now we think these risks are... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weak wage growth trumps strong price pressures The latest data show pipeline price pressures continuing to mount in the euro-zone, pointing on the face of it to much higher consumer price inflation. But while there is arguably scope for a small... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Although Russian headline inflation came in at a slightly-weaker-than expected 6.5% y/y, that masked a worryingly strong rise in core inflation that’s likely to trigger further monetary tightening. We... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we learnt, and didn’t learn, from the BoE We learnt three things from this Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision and were left in the dark on two key issues. As a result, some of our forecasts for money market rates and gilt yields have... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry holds back otherwise strong recovery This week provided yet more good news on the euro-zone, with case numbers falling consistently in some countries, vaccine rollouts on track, and both the survey and official data suggesting that the... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
