Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q4 2021) Israel’s economic recovery unexpectedly accelerated at the end of last year, with the 16.6% annualised rise in GDP in Q4 pushing it far above its pre-pandemic trend. Alongside the rise in inflation to... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in December took it above its pre-pandemic level and timelier evidence points to a small increase at the start of this year. But input shortages remain... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising wage inflation will embolden ECB hawks The tightening of labour market conditions in the euro-zone is likely to help push hourly wage growth up over the next couple of years to more than 3% y/y by 2023. This will serve to strengthen the... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation in January from 5.4% to a new 30-year high of 5.5%, the latest rise in oil prices and the new item weights mean that we now think CPI inflation will rise to a peak of 7.9% in... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates will leave homes overvalued Our new, higher interest rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will climb to an eight-year high in 2023, making house prices look expensive by historical standards. But the overvaluation won’t be... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 confirms that the region’s economy was struggling at the end of 2021. But with Omicron under control and restrictions being eased, we expect the recovery to... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2021) Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were generally stronger-than-expected as policymakers responded to virus outbreaks with only light-touch restrictions and easing supply shortages... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) Employment has recouped the falls after the furlough scheme, the unemployment rate has fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies are at a record high and wage growth is rising. That’s a recipe for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will prime rents offer inflation protection? Our forecasts suggest that prime all-property rental growth across the main euro-zone markets is likely to keep pace with inflation in the coming years. However, this is more of a reflection of... 14th February 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity to show further strength in 2022 After a record-breaking 2021, survey evidence points to a strong start to the year for pan-European (excluding UK) investment volumes. With pent-up demand mostly exhausted, we expect transactions to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
