Emerging Europe Economics Update COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out The past month has seen a growing divergence in COVID-19 outbreaks across the region, with cases still very low in Central Europe but surging in Israel and Turkey. Either way, it appears that... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) The chunky fall in the composite activity PMI suggests that the economy struggled to gain fresh momentum in August despite the apparent easing of the “pingdemic” and the final relaxation of all... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation concerns, economy off to a bad start in Q3 The latest batch of labour market data will have done little to ease the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) concerns that the coming rise in inflation could be sustained in 2022. But we are not... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Delta variant not yet putting brakes on recovery The timeliest data show little evidence that concerns about the Delta variant are causing economic activity to fall outright. But with output getting closer to normal levels and the virus situation... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from major emerging markets have picked up sharply over the past couple of weeks, driven by virus concerns, growing expectations that the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) Polish industrial production continued to expand at a solid pace in July while retail sales fell as the re-opening of the economy shifted spending away from goods. The big picture is that the economy... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q2 & Jun. 2021) The release of Q2 GDP data from Norway this morning confirmed that the mainland economy came within a whisker of re-gaining its pre-virus level in June. Growth is set to accelerate in Q3. 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of rising inflation expectations Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen during the past few months, but they are still consistent with our view that inflation will remain well below target over the medium term... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank still on track for September rate lift-off This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero was no surprise. Following the delay to the tightening cycle in New Zealand, the Norges Bank is back... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Booster jabs accelerate as virus cases surge in Israel The spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant has driven a sharp rise in virus cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Israel this month. Evidence of waning vaccine efficacy prompted the... 18th August 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are PDRs the answer to mis-matches in supply? New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final HICP (July) The final euro-zone inflation data for July show that global supply problems have not pushed up goods prices dramatically, and “re-opening inflation” has been limited so far. We think that base... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Tentative signs of a turning point for property All-property capital values rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, leaving them less than 1% below their pre-virus level. The improvement was driven by a decline in all-property yields, though... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
