Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug.) The further easing in the construction PMI in August was due to materials shortages rather than any softening in demand. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property... 6th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Zurich office returns rank poorly over next five years Weak near-term rental prospects and squeezed valuations mean that we expect Swiss office returns to perform poorly in the coming years, particularly in Zurich. 6th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug.) The upgrades to the IPF Consensus views for this year still leaves them below our forecast. However, our more downbeat view on the outlook for offices because of the shift to more remote working means... 3rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly From not enough jobs to not enough workers It’s remarkable how quickly the fear keeping policymakers awake at night has shifted from there being too many people out of work to there not being enough people to fill all the vacant jobs... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug) The recovery in euro-zone retail sales ended in July as sales fell sharply compared to June. However this does not affect our view that consumption will grow strongly in Q3, not least because we think... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics HGV labour shortages won’t drive interest rates up next year Reports that shortages of heavy good vehicles (HGV) drivers have become more acute and have raised drivers’ pay will do little to ease fears that higher wage growth could persistently lift CPI... 3rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation reading of 19.3% y/y in August doesn’t rule out the start of an easing cycle later this year. However, we now only see scope for an interest rate cut at... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months. 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising bond yields point to deteriorating valuations The valuation of industrial and offices deteriorated compared to bonds and equities in Q2 on account of falls in property yields. Meanwhile, retail yields stabilised, leaving valuations broadly... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Slower purchase pace in sight, but rate hikes are not The ECB is likely to use next week’s meeting to prepare the ground for a very gradual reduction in asset purchases under the emergency PEPP. But, taking a leaf out of the Fed’s book, it will stress... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update End of policy support doesn’t pose much risk While the furlough scheme was critical in preventing the COVID-19 recession from dragging down house prices, we don’t think that the withdrawal of the scheme poses much of a risk. Meanwhile, the... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Expanded vaccine coverage to keep Delta in check The recent fall in aggregate new daily Covid cases in the euro-zone, largely due to the success of the vaccination programme, means that governments in the region should be able to avoid re-imposing... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
