Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) Today’s final PMIs confirmed that economic activity in the euro-zone as a whole continued to roughly stagnate in January but picked up in Italy and Spain. They also show that inflationary pressures... 3rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB deposit rate still set to reach 3.5% Whereas the Bank of England and (arguably) the Fed delivered dovish surprises over the past twenty four hours, we think the ECB decision did not amount to a clear change of policy stance. The ECB is... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Chinese tourist rebound no silver bullet for prime retail The reversal of China’s zero-COVID policy means Chinese tourists could return to European high streets sooner than expected. While this should help support occupier demand, it seems unlikely it will... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates close to their peak, but cuts are far away While raising rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 3.50% to 4.00%, the Bank of England implied that rates are very close to their peak. We still think that rates may rise to 4.50%, but perhaps... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Feb.) 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic risks of Israel’s new government Concerns over democratic backsliding and an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict associated with Israel’s new far-right government won’t necessarily mean that foreign investment into Israel... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Jan.) January’s drop in headline inflation should be taken with a pinch of salt because a “data processing problem” meant that the data for Germany had to be estimated and might therefore be unreliable. In... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in December but is likely to increase over the coming months as the economy falls into recession. That said, the increase will probably be smaller... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) Given very stretched mortgage affordability, it was unsurprising to see house prices continue to decline at the beginning of 2023. The fall in house prices since their peak last August grew to 3.2% as... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Employment has been resilient so far While we expect employment to weaken, it’s happening at a glacial pace. That feeds into our view that once interest rates peak (perhaps at 4.50% up from 3.50% now) they will stay high for all of this... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New euro-zone forecasts: recession and slow recovery We think that the euro-zone will enter a recession in the first half of this year and then experience a slow recovery. Our new GDP forecasts show a 0.5% contraction in 2023 and growth of only 0.8%... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) A further slump in mortgage approvals in December, to the lowest level since the height of the pandemic, confirmed that the extremely high cost of mortgage borrowing has caused more buyers to withdraw... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
