Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russia’s activity data for July show that industrial production has come off the boil, but retail sales continued to expand strongly, and the strength of consumer demand will probably keep the central... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank to take a chance on “QT” next year Housing market valuations in Sweden are even more stretched than on past occasions when the Riksbank has “leant against the wind” – that is, set policy tighter than needed to contain consumer price... 1st September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (August) The PMIs for August suggest that manufacturing conditions have softened in Q3 as output and new orders fell further from their recent highs. More than anything, it looks like conditions are... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2021) A strong rebound from May’s three-week lockdown meant that Turkey’s economy managed to expand by 0.9% q/q over Q2 as a whole and the early signs are that it carried this momentum into Q3. Robust... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Delta variant not weighing on Italian recovery Data released today confirmed that the Italian economy grew strongly in Q2, supporting our above-consensus forecast for the year as a whole. Timelier data suggest that concerns about the Delta variant... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish retail rents to rebound from next year We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the... 31st August 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) The fall in July’s net lending total was the fastest drop since last July. As investment activity remained healthy and the economic recovery remains solid, it is likely that lenders restricted further... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) After rising to a near-10-year high of 3.0% in August, we suspect that euro-zone inflation will rise even further in the coming months. But this is due to temporary forces that should fade next year... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jul.) The latest money and credit figures do little to ease mounting concerns that the resurgence in virus cases in July and so-called “pingdemic” brought the consumer recovery to a halt. 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) Mortgage approvals continued to fall back in July as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, but they remained above pre-COVID-19 levels. Timely indicators suggest that demand will be resilient even when... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
