Europe Economics Update How would Germany be hit by a gas embargo? A full embargo on Russian energy would force Germany to ration gas supplies to its most gas-intensive companies. This would have unpredictable knock-on effects which would cause a recession. While the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone heading for recession? The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy was still growing at a decent pace in March, but the risk of it contracting in Q2 is rising. The main event over the weekend will be the first... 8th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Growing risk of Le Pen upset to Macron re-election bid This month’s French presidential election no longer looks like the shoo-in for incumbent Emmanuel Macron that it did only a few weeks ago. Right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen’s chances have risen... 8th April 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Short-term boost to Spanish office rents We think that a rebound in employment will help prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid to outperform the euro-zone this year. But this is likely to be short-lived, as the shift to remote... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting “Le Pen risk” & implications for financial markets While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone... 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How worried should property be about higher rates? Rising interest rates have put the outlook for property prices back under the spotlight. But, with lending practices much more restrained in this cycle and the market level loan-to-value ratio well... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Rate hikes are coming! The Governing Council is likely to leave its policy guidance unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting, saying it expects to end net asset purchases in Q3 and raise policy rates “some time”... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Stagflation risks rising The risk of stagflation has risen substantially. The latest surveys suggest that the economy held up pretty well in March, but the forward-looking indicators paint a much gloomier picture of the... 7th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early evidence of a hard hit to Russia’s economy Timely indicators suggest that Russian manufacturing contracted by around 20% y/y in March and that consumer spending fell by 10% y/y at the start of April. Russia’s economic downturn looks set to... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales & German Industrial Production (Feb.) The small increases in euro-zone retail sales and German industrial production suggest that economic activity was growing at a modest pace in February. With much higher energy prices now weighing on... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update High inflation isn’t all down to pandemic and energy Pandemic-related effects and higher energy prices have played a significant part in pushing up inflation in the euro-zone, but domestically-generated “underlying” price pressures have increased too... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up its fight against inflation The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly delivered its largest interest rate hike in 22 years today (100bp, to 4.50%) to get on top of the deteriorating inflation outlook and we think there’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Mar.) The continued strength of the construction PMI in March suggests that activity in the sector increased despite ongoing headwinds from supply constraints and cost inflation. The rise in new orders... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen’s chances of victory are increasing The chances of right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency later this month appear to have risen sharply over the past couple of weeks. A victory for Le Pen would almost... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s final euro-zone PMI surveys confirmed that output expectations fell sharply, with Germany experiencing the biggest drop. Meanwhile, price pressures remain intense across the currency union... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
