UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2022) Banks expect mortgage availability to fall back in Q2 as lenders push up borrowing rates to reflect increases in Bank Rate, but other lending criteria are expected to be stable or loosen. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bright outlook for Belgium industrial rents While economic growth is forecast to slow, limited supply and further strong growth in e-commerce-related demand mean Belgium industrial rental growth is expected to outperform its pre-pandemic... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in CPI inflation in March from 6.2% to a new 30-year high of 7.0% was the sixth upside surprise in as many months and will pile more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Final HICP (March) and ZEW (April) Final inflation data for Germany in March and the first survey of economic sentiment for April underline the acute problems which the German economy now faces. Energy inflation and underlying price... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity data for February point to a growing divergence between industry, which is being supported by a weak lira, and retail sales which continues to struggle in face of the surge in... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: interest rate lift-off with a 25bp hike The Bank of Israel kick-started its tightening cycle today with a 25bp interest rate hike to 0.35% and we think it will deliver further hikes at its upcoming meetings, taking rates to around 2.00% in... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French presidential race still looks very close A solid result for incumbent Emmanuel Macron in yesterday’s first round of the French presidential election has helped to allay fears of a Le Pen presidency. But the latest polls still point to a very... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline and core inflation came in below expectations in March, underlying price pressures are likely to push both measures up a bit in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank is more... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising costs an upside risk to German industrial rents While prime industrial rental growth in the German markets is expected to slow in the next couple of years, it will remain above its past averages. But the risks are to the upside given the rise in... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all in February suggests the economy had a little less momentum in Q1 than we had previously thought, and increases the risk of a contraction in GDP in... 11th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The 7.6% m/m rise in consumer prices in Russia in March was the highest monthly increase since the 1990s. It pushed the headline inflation rate up to 16.7% y/y and we think it will rise towards 23% y... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Optimistic earnings expectations may slow E-Z equities Earnings expectations for listed euro-zone companies look, as a whole, a bit optimistic to us given the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Western This feeds into our view that the region’s... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Upside risks to inflation continue to build We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy sanctions ratchet up, Russia close to default? This week’s announcement that the EU will ban the import of Russian coal from mid-August will not have a major impact on Russian export revenues, but it marks a clear shift in the EU’s aim to target... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
