Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales figures in Poland remained incredibly strong in March and point to a solid expansion in Q1. A lot of this strength is unlikely to last as the effects of the war... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Completion delays prolong Budapest office market dip Past delays in development projects mean that office completions will exceed demand in Budapest this year and next. As such, having held broadly steady in 2021, office vacancy is set to rise again and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) The hefty fall in retail sales in March marks the second consecutive month of decline and adds to signs that the real wage squeeze is hitting consumer spending. With CPI inflation already at a 30-year... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update There is still likely to be a reckoning for offices We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start its tightening cycle next week Having so far been a bastion of dovishness amongst G10 central banks, we think that the stage is set for the Riksbank to start to raise the repo rate next Thursday, and it will press on with further... 21st April 2022 · 5 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Mar.) Headline inflation rose to 7.4% in March and further increases are likely. This will put a big dent in consumer spending, so we think that 2022 will be a year of stagflation for the euro-zone. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Update President Le Pen: seismic shift or five-year blip? A win for Marine Le Pen would need to be followed by a strong showing for her party in June’s legislative elections if she is to implement most of her programme. A government of national unity or... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Builders cautious despite strong demand Despite facing very strong demand housebuilders appear reluctant to commit to new sites. This is because a shortage of materials is delaying completions, while rising interest rates and the end of the... 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticks to plan for now, but faster tightening likely Today’s ECB statement and press conference indicate that policymakers expect to end their net asset purchases early in Q3 and raise interest rates soon after that. With inflationary pressures still... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation and tighter policy in the Nordics Inflation data released this week across the Nordics confirmed that price pressures are building in the region. As a result, the Norges Bank looks set to press ahead with interest rate hikes, perhaps... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No respite for Sunak as Stagflation bites For an embattled Chancellor, the news from the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. But despite the worrying signs for economic activity over the coming months, with CPI inflation now... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
