UK Housing Market Outlook Spike in mortgage rates to trigger price correction The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already... 31st October 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell fiscal loosening The reports that Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in his Autumn Statement on 17th November will unveil a fiscal tightening of up to £50bn suggests that fiscal policy will soon become a major drag on the... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still a long way from a pivot This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (October) Renewed inflation shockers in Germany, France and Italy in October pour cold water on expectations that the ECB’s softer tone on rate hikes yesterday will pave the way for a “pivot”. We continue to... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slower growth, strong labour markets Data published this week showed that Sweden's economy performed better than expected in Q3, but the timelier surveys point to a contraction in Q4. Next week, the Norges Bank's rate decision will be a... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The further fall in the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator in October adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is contracting. But the labour market still looks tight and firms’... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European investment slowdown intensifying An acceleration of the slowdown in European commercial property investment in Q3 is evidence that economic growth concerns, higher interest rates and tightening credit standards are weighing heavily... 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3 2022) The unexpected resilience of Germany’s economy in Q3, with GDP rising 0.3% q/q, has probably only postponed the recession which we now expect to begin in the fourth quarter. Business surveys show that... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Risks skewed towards another 50bp hike The Norges Bank signalled in September that it intended to slow the pace of tightening, implying that it would hike by 25bp at the meeting next week. But with inflation data since then again coming in... 27th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The slowing economy and cost-of-living crisis are now having a clear impact on occupier demand, with surveyors reporting the first drop since the start of 2021. That has fed through to rent and... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Goods trade set to fall as global recession takes hold There is growing evidence that weakening demand in major economies is taking a toll on world trade. While trade volumes rose in August, early reporting Asian economies revealed a decline in imports in... 26th October 2022 · 4 mins read
