Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Sharpest fall in all-property values on record Capital value falls accelerated in Q4 as euro-zone all-property yields surged higher. And although rents increased in both offices and industrial, the outsized jump in yields meant euro-zone all... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the worst behind us? This week’s data contained encouraging signs that inflationary pressures are fading, and the risks to our view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5% this year now lie to the downside. The January MSCI data... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The rebound in retail sales in January was better than expected, had echoes of the leap in US retail sales and suggests that the festive/new year period wasn’t a complete write-off. But while 2023 is... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Pandemic recovery helped prevent recession The UK avoided a recession last year partly because of more spending by households on restaurants and trains and partly because of more investment by businesses in aircraft, cars and cruise ships... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update French wage growth to remain strong We think French wage inflation will remain much stronger than in the pre-pandemic period this year. This is not least because of the automatic adjustments to inflation of the minimum wage and... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Few signs of market bottoming out The survey data suggest that the modest decline in mortgage rates since October falls a long way short of what would be required for house prices to bottom out. The fall in market interest rates since... 16th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Output & Trade Balance (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone industrial production and imports in December further highlights the weakening in the economy at the end of last year. We expect the economy to enter a recession this year as the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January (consensus and CE forecast: 10.2%, BoE forecast: 10.1%), the drop in the core rate from 6.3% to 5.8% and the easing in services... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) Confirmation that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q4 does not alter our view that the region is now falling into recession. That said, we think the labour market will continue to hold up... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) December’s labour market data showed that, despite an easing in labour demand, labour market conditions stayed tight and the market continued to support strong wage growth. The Bank of England will be... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
