Europe Economics Weekly High inflation, record trade deficit Data released over the past week revealed that the euro-zone recorded its first monthly current account deficit since 2012 and provided further evidence that underlying price pressures are building... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation to rise further and linger longer than in the US and EZ Not only did the surge in CPI inflation to 9.0% in April leave inflation in the UK above the rates in both the US and the euro-zone, but inflation in the UK will probably rise further and stay higher... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Historical experience highlights recession risks History suggests that the surge in energy prices over the past year means there is a good chance that the euro-zone will suffer a recession in 2022. It also suggests that it will be tricky for the ECB... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly strong rise in retail sales in April suggests the cost of living crisis hasn’t caused consumer spending to collapse and means the economy may have a little more momentum than we... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental growth approaching a peak Record high rental growth at the start of the year is likely to mark a peak given signs that tenant demand is starting to ease. But strong wage growth and the rising cost of buying as mortgage rates... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update End of negative rates is nigh! The account of the ECB’s April meeting shows that a lot of policymakers thought the criteria for rate hikes had already been met. Since then, the case for rate hikes has only strengthened. While not... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Weak confidence doesn’t make spending crash inevitable The recent collapse in consumer confidence to a near-record low has added to the probability that the UK experiences a recession this year. But households’ large stock of savings and the tightness in... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Rental growth steps up CEE economies and property markets started the year on a solid footing. Strong quarterly increases in office and industrial rents supported CEE all-property values in Q1, though yield compression... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2022) The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Apr.) April’s inflation data will confirm to policymakers – if any further evidence was needed – that they want to start raising interest rates very soon. A hike in July looks a near certainty and the... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Slower yield compression weighs on capital growth Euro-zone commercial property values made further gains in Q1. Quarterly rental growth was strongest for industrial, though office and retail rents also rose. However, the pace of yield compression... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Apr.) If the rise in CPI inflation from 7.0% to a 40-year high of 9.0% in April wasn’t bad enough, inflation will probably rise further to 10% in October and will then fall back to the 2% target only slowly... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Can the economy handle interest rates of 3%? We estimate that a rise in Bank Rate from 0.10% last November to a peak of 3.00% would mean that GDP is around 2.0% lower than if Bank Rate had stayed at 0.10%. That is a smaller drag than the Bank of... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
