Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker consumer outlook to delay Spanish retail rally A rebound in tourism will cushion some of the blow to Spanish prime retail demand caused by falling real incomes this year. But once inflation eventually eases, we expect rent growth to outperform... 25th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Limits to ECB’s “unlimited” tool will soon be tested The ECB new spread-fighting tool received this week a lukewarm welcome from investors, despite its potential for unlimited asset purchases. That reflects both the ambiguity surrounding the criteria... 22nd July 2022 · 9 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (June) Global steel production growth slowed in June as higher power costs in advanced economies contributed to lower output there. By contrast, the decline in China’s output slowed slightly. Overall, we... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark to seek wider rate differential with the ECB The strictures of Denmark’s exchange rate peg means that the Nationalbank will follow the ECB’s lead as it hike rates further over the coming months. But with the krone remaining towards the “strong”... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect “high-beta” DM currencies to fall further Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year. 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone is teetering on the brink of recession due to slumping demand and rising costs while inflationary pressures remain intense. The ECB will have to follow up... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Lagarde snatches defeat from the jaws of victory Despite the ECB’s attempt at a hawkish policy shift and to shore up euro-zone periphery sovereign bond markets, we doubt the worst is over for euro-zone financial markets. 21st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB embarks on treacherous rate hike cycle The ECB’s 50bp rate hike today is likely to be the first move in a sustained interest rate hiking cycle which we think will bring the deposit rate to around 2% next year. We also think the Bank will... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak leu not a silver bullet for Romania’s CA deficit Romania’s current account deficit is likely to rise to almost 9% of GDP this year. While a weaker currency would help to reduce this shortfall, structural reforms are needed to boost competitiveness... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is worse than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. This may limit the ability... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
