This week the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, said that he didn’t think interest rates will rise much further from 5.25% now but that rates are likely to stay high for a long time. We’re expecting only one more 25 basis point rate hike, from 5.25% to 5.50%, in September before rates are put on hold until late in 2024. But the mild recession we forecast may mean rates are cut faster than investors (and Pill) expect in late 2024 and in 2025.
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