UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The labour market remained tight in January. Even so, the Bank of England will breathe a sigh of relief as wage growth is easing. Together with the collapse of a couple of US banks having tightened... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation came in slightly softer than expected in February, at 11.0% y/y, and it will fall to the central bank’s 4% target in March as base effects pass through. We don’t think there’s been... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Unpacking our new euro-zone forecasts There were some surprises in the Q4 commercial real estate data from the euro-zone, in particular in how swiftly yields have risen. Taken together with changes to our economic view these imply further... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession or not, economy is set to suffer The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy stalled in Q4 last year and also revealed that domestic demand fell off a cliff. Data published so far this year point to continued... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slimming the size of the possible recession With the hit to real activity from high inflation having been and gone and mostly absorbed by government handouts and a real terms reduction in households’ pandemic savings, we no longer think there... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m rise in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) will raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession in 2023 and will increase calls for the Chancellor to splash the... 10th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update More pain ahead for Italian industrial The Italian industrial market saw its sharpest fall in capital values on record last year, owing to a surge in yields in Q4. But with valuations still stretched and investor demand weakening, we think... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The slight recovery in the new buyer enquiries balance in February suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates allowed a limited revival in demand. But with sales volumes falling... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Euro-zone Drop-In: ECB March meeting preview 1678788000 With another 50bps rate hike at the European Central Bank’s March meeting looking like a done deal, all eyes will be on how policymakers signal the path ahead for monetary tightening.
