UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in both the housing and commercial readings. (See Chart 1.) While we doubt commercial... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing Given the rise in rents and the recent decline in mortgage rates, the financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing. This will boost buyer demand and cause tenant demand to soften this year. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Close to a floor, but investment upturn will be weak Euro-zone investment improved a little in Q4, but that did not prevent it experiencing its worst year in a decade. While we have raised our forecast for through-year growth, we still expect a weak... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal splurge won’t prevent summer interest rate cut The IMF was not wrong when it pointed out this week that by offering pre-election tax cuts, the Chancellor is turning a blind eye to the precarious state of the fiscal position. To meet his fiscal... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The “greedy beast” may be tamed but not slayed Tentative signs of an increase in services press pressures support the view of ECB policymakers who are concerned about the strength of domestic inflation. We still think that the data will support an... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the recent rebound in REIT prices tell us? At face value, the rebound in European equity REIT prices over recent months suggests that capital values could be nearing their trough. But the past relationship is weak and REITs have benefited from... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts may come sooner than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent a signal that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back strongly against the idea that rates... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Feb. 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent some soft signals that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back more strongly against the... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2024) January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were released yesterday. While the euro-zone’s headline and core inflation rates... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Riksbank signalled unequivocally in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated. While a March rate cut is possible, particularly if the January... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
