Climate Economics Focus A primer on the EU’s emissions trading scheme This first report of a three-part mini-series explains what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in 2005. It then explores how reforms to the ETS... 22nd February 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices 14th March 2024, 9:30AM GMT Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s activity data for January suggest that the reacceleration in wage growth at the start of this year supported domestic demand, while the export-orientated industrial sector struggled. We think... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Feb. 2024) The flash PMIs for February suggest that the economy is still struggling and that price pressures are, if anything, intensifying. This does not dramatically change the picture for the ECB, but it does... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value... 21st February 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finances figures delivered some much-needed good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 6th March. But we doubt this will pave the way for a very big pre-election... 21st February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2024 Preview – Electioneering beats prudence Using most of the fiscal headroom of about £15bn to cut taxes in the Spring Budget on 6th March would show that the Chancellor is putting the election before prudence. Such tax cuts may help lift the... 20th February 2024 · 21 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Budget 2024 – Jeremy Hunt goes shopping for votes 6th March 2024, 3:00PM GMT The UK Chancellor may use his 6th March Spring Budget to splash the cash and try to win voter support for the beleaguered Conservative party ahead of an expected electi
Europe Economics Update Construction weakness to resume Euro-zone construction output picked up in December, but remained well below last year’s peak. We expect it to drop again in 2024, in part due to a continued dismal performance by the sector in... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year. 19th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will... 19th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The underlying measure of inflation fell further in January and supports the case for the Riksbank to ease monetary policy soon. We expect the first rate cut in May. 19th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
