Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q1 2024) The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its pre-war level. The latest indicators suggest that activity is likely to recover... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in... 16th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus agree prime office rental growth to slow Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024) The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar. 2024) While the further easing in regular private sector pay growth in March suggests that wage pressures faded a bit faster than the Bank of England expected, broader measures of wage growth are probably... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is renting becoming the preserve of the rich? High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament election An increase in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections in June will have little bearing on economic policy in the near term because the more centrist parties should still win... 13th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No need to panic about a US-style surge in GDP (yet) The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 was the largest quarterly rise since Q4 2021 and has triggered fears that the UK could be heading for a US-style surge in GDP growth that prevents inflation from... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift... 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2024) The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had anticipated. This raises the... 10th May 2024 · 3 mins read
