Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about the euro-zone’s banks? We doubt that the banking sector crisis which has hit US regional banks and Credit Suisse will morph into a sustained or systemic problem for the euro-zone’s banks. However, there may well be further... 28th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending very weak even before recent turmoil The February money and credit data show that even before the recent pressure on European banks, net bank lending was extremely weak and consistent with the economy contracting sharply. 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The fifth successive monthly increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in March suggests that Germany is still benefitting from falling energy prices and easing supply problems but has yet to... 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to see-saw on banking sector turmoil The US dollar had spent much of the week on the back foot amid a growing belief that banking sector issues might prove a largely US-specific problem. But that narrative, and price action, has (again)... 24th March 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The two-sided risks to our rate forecasts Our view is that Bank Rate will rise from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50% and stay there for all of this year before being cut to around 3.00% by the end of next year. But the two-sided risks to our... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower yield rises but values to fall further as rents stagnate With valuations still highly stretched and rent growth likely to slow as the region falls into recession, we think capital values will fall further in 2023. While the 4.5% decline forecast at the all... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s banks, the ECB and pension reform in France There a plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Europe’s banks. While the renewed sell-off in bank equities on Friday show that it is too soon to sound the all clear, the latest comments... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What do bank troubles mean for UK mortgage lending? Bank failures have had only a modest impact on UK banks’ wholesale funding costs to date, reflecting an assessment that lenders are in good health which we think seems fair. Greater investor scrutiny... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in March. But with the full drag from high interest rates yet to be felt, our hunch is still that the economy will enter a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The strong batch of euro-zone flash PMIs for March suggests that the economy expanded in Q1 and that both employment conditions and price pressures remained very strong. That adds to the reasons to... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2023) The strong batch of euro-zone flash PMIs for March means it is now all but certain that the economy expanded in Q1 while both employment conditions and price pressures remained very strong. With the... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
