Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European banks weathering CRE crash Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate lending is holding up well. Further declines in values... 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction activity will continue to decline Activity in the euro-zone’s construction sector is declining and the outlook is poor. The latest surveys suggest that construction output will decline by up to 2% q/q in Q4. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italian households save the day? Italian households have been the main net purchasers of Italian government bonds recently and we suspect that they will buy a lot more in the coming months. However, the sustainability of Italy’s debt... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting Italy’s debt dynamics into context Italy stands out in the euro-zone for its particularly worrying public debt dynamics. The governments of most euro-zone countries could stabilise their debt ratios while running primary budget... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) The uptick in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.0 in September to 45.6 in October still left it below the 50 “no-change” mark. But despite an improvement in both the commercial activity and... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (October 2023) Final PMIs released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4. They also suggest that price pressures are continuing... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Riksbank “bailout” not as bad as it looks The Riksbank’s request for a capital injection from the government is not a good look for an independent central bank. But its QE-related losses will be smaller than those of many other central banks... 3rd November 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s central bank, Russian ruble, Israel’s offensive Turkey's central bank governor delivered another convincing message at this week's Inflation Report briefing and suggested that further policy tightening will be delivered over the coming months... 3rd November 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doth the Old Lady protest too much on rate cuts? The surge in business insolvencies and slump in M4 money growth suggest that the Bank of England maybe protesting too much when it stressed this week that interest rate cuts are far away. But the Bank... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong wage growth to delay ECB rate cuts Wage growth looks to finally be slowing in the euro-zone amid weaker economic growth and falling inflation, but it remains too high for comfort. As a result, we think the ECB will wait until a more... 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkish inflation unexpectedly fell to 61.4% y/y in October and while we think inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, the peak is probably not too far away. The central bank’s... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four things of note on the SNB this week The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
