Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) and Employment (Q3 2023) We do not think the slight acceleration in employment growth in Q3 is a sign of things to come. With business surveys deep in contractionary territory and firms’ hiring intentions falling sharply, the... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (Oct. 2023) The increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in October was broadly as anticipated and does not change our view that, while it will be a close call, policymakers are most likely to raise... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep./Oct. 2023) With wage growth continuing to ease and signs that a further loosening in the labour market lies ahead, higher interest rates appear to be gradually working. But our view that wage growth will ease... 14th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental affordability at its worst for over a decade While the official measure of rental growth is running at record highs, pay has risen even faster. So, at face value rental affordability is good by historic standards. But that doesn’t account for... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Sep.) Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Impact of higher rates spreading beyond housing Whether or not Q3 marked the start of a recession, the recent resilience of the economy appears to be fading as the drag from higher interest rates grows. The weakness in the housing market has... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revolving doors on the Iberian peninsula The resignation of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa and news of a coalition government being formed behind incumbent Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez this week could shift the two economies’ relative... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Oct. 2023) Despite the unexpected jump in Norway’s headline and core inflation rates in October, we still think the Norges Bank is most likely to leave rates on hold in December. 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep./Q3 2023) The Q3 GDP data will spark a big debate about whether or not the economy is in recession (the published growth rate was 0.0% q/q, but GDP declined by 0.03% or £173m). But the key point is that the... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 23) The past prices balance remained deeply negative in October contradicting the 1% m/m increases in house prices recorded by both Halifax and Nationwide. But a recovery in buyer enquiries suggests the... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
