UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2023) October’s public finances figures won’t deter the Chancellor from embarking on a pre-election fiscal giveaway in his Autumn Statement on Wednesday. We think he will unveil a net fiscal giveaway... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement 2023 Checklist This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Autumn Statement. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office yield looks unsustainable Milan prime office yields appear very low both compared to other alternative assets and other euro-zone countries. By any standards, office property there looks highly overvalued. But looking ahead... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What the Chancellor won’t tell us The Chancellor will squeeze as much political juice out of Wednesday's Autumn Statement to try and regain the agenda ahead of an election next year. But he won't tell us that bigger pre-election... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany’s constitutional court strikes again The constitutional court ruling that the German government's use of off-budget funds is unlawful is another headache for the ruling coalition in Berlin. However, we doubt that it will result in as... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2023) The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in October means that after contracting by 1.0% q/q (which was downwardly revised from -0.8% q/q) in Q3, retail activity remained weak at the start of Q4... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The slowdown in rent growth so far this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop... 16th November 2023 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank hike back on amid strong price pressures Recent developments will have given policymakers at Norges Bank food for thought ahead of December’s interest rate decision. While we had initially rejected the central bank’s guidance that it would... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to buck the trend and hike again While the world’s major central banks now appear to have ended their tightening cycles, we think the Riksbank will raise its policy rate by 25bp again next week, to 4.25%, because of the strength of... 16th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2023 Preview - Short-term political gain worsens long-term fiscal pain With the government still languishing far behind in the opinion polls and an election required before the end of January 2025, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is under more pressure than ever to pull... 15th November 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sept.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in September and is likely to continue contracting in the final quarter of the year, primarily due to weak demand. 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023) The fall in CPI inflation from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October is a bit bigger than expected, brings inflation a bit closer to the rates in the US and the euro-zone, all-but confirms the Prime... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How worried should we be about wage growth? While wage growth will continue to slow, the smaller-than-expected fall in September supports our view that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at their current level of 5.25% until late in... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
