Chief Economist's Note When it comes to the green transition, follow the data not the rhetoric The COP28 jamboree in Dubai will produce a long list of climate promises from governments and corporate leaders, but these will be of little practical help to market participants attempting to track... 4th December 2023
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation to 1.4% in November ensures that the SNB will not be at all tempted to raise interest rates in December, despite the Bank’s recent statements to the contrary... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. We think the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle is likely... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising our ECB forecast, German fiscal space In light of this week’s data releases we are bringing forward our forecast for the first ECB rate cut to June next year and now think the deposit rate will fall from 4% currently to 3% by the end of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling labour market will be crucial for rate cuts The possibility that the labour market is tighter than it looked has placed a question mark over when the Bank of England will be able to cut interest rates. Our forecast for services inflation and... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central and Eastern Europe rose in November suggesting that industrial sectors in the region are turning a corner, while Russia’s PMI remained near multi-year highs. That... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q3.) The 0.3% q/q increase in GDP was better than the consensus and our own forecasts (consensus: 0.1%; CE: 0.0%) but there was a downward revision to Q2 data from 0.0% to -0.1%. The main driver of growth... 1st December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 23) The further small increase in the Nationwide house price index in November was unexpected and came on the heels of an even larger rise in October. It means house prices are on track to fall by just 2%... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data centres to remain non-core, despite AI boost Our AI work has identified data centres as a clear winner from these innovations. That the sector is already in rude health is borne out by the latest real estate data. But it remains to be seen if it... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus What would convince the Bank of England to cut rates? The key indicators that have usually convinced the Bank of England to cut interest rates suggest the first cut could come in Q1 2024. That said, rates have risen to a lower peak than most models... 30th November 2023 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in November means it is becoming increasingly untenable for policymakers to claim that they are not even thinking about rate cuts. We are now pencilling in a... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3) The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2023) The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have downwardly revised their expectations for 2024, as a downgrade in capital value growth outweighed some improvement in rents. That leaves us... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
