Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Jul.) The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Aug. 2024) The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in August supports our view that the fall in the Nationwide house price index in the same month was a blip and isn’t the start of... 6th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is industrial demand back on track? The most recent European industrial take-up figures were slightly more encouraging. We expect activity will continue to slowly improve over the next couple of years, supported by the consumer recovery... 5th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2024) Retail sales increased by 0.1% in July, and we expect them to rise further in the coming months, though at only a fairly modest pace. 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in August, but at 53.6 it remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month. 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view... 3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Turkish inflation, to 52.0% y/y, in August is likely to be followed by continued disinflation over the coming months. But there are signs in the breakdown that underlying inflation... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State Elections The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3. 2nd September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2024) The Turkish GDP figures for Q2, which showed a better-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in output, suggest that the rebalancing process still has some way to go. The data argue in favour of the central... 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What if the Fed and the ECB underdeliver? US and euro-zone inflation data released today did little to change our view that both the Fed and the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp in September, as investors seem to expect. But we think both... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
