Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking South Africa’s structural growth problem There’s growing optimism that South Africa’s economy is set for a period of faster growth under the Government of National Unity (GNU). And we think a combination of lower interest rates and higher... 22nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24) The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mpox, SA’s geopolitical pivot This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption to economic activity in the region, with... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 33.4% in July, the first time it had slowed in 18 months, as the passthrough from previous naira falls has finally started to faded. With inflation having... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Structural boost outweighing cyclical drag on exports EM goods export growth has accelerated over the past year despite a slowdown in economic growth in DMs. We think this is being driven by three structural factors: Chinese overcapacity, the AI... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa experiencing a two speed recovery South African economy looks to have recorded a pick-up in growth in Q2, but the recovery is operating at two speeds with retail sales and manufacturing on the up, while the mining sector remains a... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Market turmoil and Africa, Uganda and Kenya rate cuts Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African... 9th August 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the latest moves in EM currencies Heightened US recession worries have helped unwound some of the stretched positions in high-carry EM currencies, resulting in their exchange rates moving closer to their “fair values” (judging by our... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finally running out of steam The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
