Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00%... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Five questions and answers on frontier default risks The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing entering choppy waters The drop in the S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that a fading re-opening boost in China and weak global demand have caused industry to slow. And in parts of Eastern Europe, the... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A brighter outlook for EM local currency bonds We continue to expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local currency (LC) sovereign bonds to rise over the rest of 2022. But we anticipate smaller rises than we did previously, given our... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in July points to a large hit to activity from weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. It will probably take some time before... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s economic woes mount For a major net oil exporter, Nigeria’s worsening economic struggles in the current high oil price environment are striking. Low oil production, which was 30% below the country’s OPEC+ quota in June... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems come to the fore Sub-Saharan African economies are suffering heavily from the spillovers from Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. Policy in the region is likely to tighten further as a result, weighing on growth... 26th July 2022 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt risks and IMF deals, hawks gain ground Recently approved IMF financing will ease near-term balance of payment pressures in Tanzania and Kenya, but the Fund’s push to tighten fiscal policy will weigh on recoveries. Meanwhile, this week’s... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read