Africa Economics Weekly SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles The president of South Africa and the ruling ANC are taking the heat as corruption accusations fly. With political bickering likely to grow, the focus on boosting the economy with much-needed reforms... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy OPEC+ to change tack from September Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation in South Africa to an above-target 6.5% y/y in May is likely to shift the debate to a choice between a 50bp and a 75bp hike to interest rates at July’s MPC meeting. But inflation... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Where next for inflation in South Africa? Inflation in South Africa has been close to the top of the central bank’s target range in recent months, but the country has avoided the surge in inflation seen across much of the world. And there are... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tighter global financing conditions, Zambia’s debt African financial markets are not insulated from the tightening of global external financing conditions, and recent currency weakness and rising sovereign bond yields in the region will only add to... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of Nigeria’s recovery decelerating further The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economic rebound slowed further at the start of Q2, and we think that the recovery will remain lacklustre over the coming quarters. The weakness of the... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (Apr.) & Nigeria Inflation (May) South Africa’s activity data for April showed that flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts dealt a big blow to industrial sectors, while retail sales held up well. GDP probably still... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Uninspiring politics in Nigeria, SA’s external position Nigeria’s two main political parties have selected presidential contenders, setting the scene for a long campaign season ahead of elections in early 2023. Lots can happen until then, but with more... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt and current account risks are building The effects of the war in Ukraine and strong dollar are causing sovereign debt risks to build in a handful of frontier markets with weak balance sheets, while public debt dynamics in parts of Emerging... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 1.9% q/q in Q1 and, while the economy is unlikely to sustain such a robust performance over the coming quarters, we have revised up our GDP... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: near-term struggles, long-term outlook brighter Unfavourable shifts in commodity prices, the effects of drought and a slow rebound in the tourism sector will hold back Tanzania’s economy over the next couple of years. But while the near-term... 6th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel levy in South Africa, primary season in Nigeria The extension of a fuel levy cut in South Africa will help to contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, but the extra fiscal costs come at the same time that it looks like the government will... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
