Africa Economics Update SA budget shows healthier public finances… for now Today’s budget showed that South Africa’s public finances are in a better-than-expected shape but the path to stabilise the debt ratio remains narrow. Mounting pressures to provide more fiscal support... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus How does South Africa deal with its debt problem? This week’s Budget in South Africa will probably see the government reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. But we think that officials will struggle to stay on this path in the next couple... 22nd February 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget to sow seeds of fiscal slippage South Africa’s upcoming budget speech will probably contain better-than-projected fiscal results, allowing the finance minister to extend temporary spending measures without undermining near-term... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the EM tightening cycle After a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America may now be nearing an end. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates will remain... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s GDP growth was unchanged at 4.0% y/y in Q4 as a slightly smaller drag from the oil sector was offset by a weaker performance in the non-oil economy. But we think that growth will drop back... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) December’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s economy held up well in the face of the Omicron virus wave. GDP probably expanded by around 0.9% q/q in Q4, implying growth of 4.6% over 2021 as... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 5.7% y/y in January, and with soft core inflation and a bumpy economic recovery, the monetary tightening cycle is likely to be more gradual than... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in Nigeria was unchanged at 15.6% y/y in January and the headline rate will probably soften only gradually. At this point, however, policymakers are unlikely to hike interest rates in... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF? The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as the president vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his party... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery switching to an even slower lane Timely activity data suggest that, over Q4 as a whole, Nigeria’s economy came close to a standstill. The weak economic backdrop is likely to prevent the CBN from raising interest rates in the coming... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
