Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The plunge in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in April suggests that there was a large blow to activity from flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts. One consequence of this economic... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s privatisation push, Africa’s growing food insecurity Momentum appears to be building within South Africa’s ruling ANC party to shift towards a more private sector-led economic model. But given the party’s track record, we wouldn’t hold our breath... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Activity set to weaken as headwinds mount Many EMs have started the year on a solid footing, but challenging months lie ahead. While high inflation is likely to weigh on consumption, spillovers from lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Slim chance of another 2000s-style boom in EM equities We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market equities relative to those in developed markets – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Europe turns to Africa to replace Russian gas European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. While the region’s gas producers – like Angola and Nigeria – will gain from the recent surge in global energy... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in inflation in South Africa in March, to 5.9% y/y, will keep the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle going at the next meeting in May. But the weakness of core inflation supports our view that... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Floods hit SA recovery, Nigeria’s presidential race This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the news this week from Nigeria that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine and the start of the US Fed’s hiking cycle have exposed macro imbalances in some frontier economies, but do not appear to have had a significant impact on capital flows into many of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Feb.) South Africa’s hard activity data for February were a stark contrast to the recent upbeat surveys as output dropped back in the mining, manufacturing and retail sectors. Electricity problems, fiscal... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
