Emerging Markets Economics Update EM default risks: more than meets the eye The effects of the pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine have pushed a growing number of EMs into debt distress. And while some (Tunisia, Ghana) look likely to follow Sri Lanka’s path into default... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (May) The disappointing batch of South African activity data for May suggests that the economy is on course for a mild fall in GDP in the second quarter. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) OPEC unveiled its oil market forecasts for 2023 in its monthly report today. OPEC is more bullish than us on demand, forecasting an increase of 2.7m barrels per day. But even though it is also quite... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Why is Nigeria struggling while oil prices are so high? Amidst sky-high oil prices, a stream of downbeat comments from Nigerian government officials on the state of the economy may seem mind-boggling. In this Focus, we outline what’s behind the country’s... 11th July 2022 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Political risks piling up, rand on the rocks Resurfacing political risks in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are another threat to recoveries that are already facing multiple headwinds, while at the same time raising the pressure on several... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far are we through the EM tightening cycle? Tightening cycles in Latin America and Emerging Europe are already at an advanced stage. Some 70-80% of the likely rate hikes in their cycles have already been delivered and policymakers will bring... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana and the IMF: big hurdles to debt sustainability The decision by Ghana’s government to turn to the IMF will help to restore some calm among investors over the country’s poor public finances. But a very large fiscal squeeze is needed to restore debt... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly All aboard the monetary tightening train Recent inflation figures out of the region and remarks from central bank officials point towards more, and potentially larger, interest rate hikes in most African economies over the coming months. A... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in June signals that the rebound from the floods that hit activity in April lost steam at the end of Q2. The sector was probably a considerable drag on... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding and the hit to South Africa’s economy If past experience is anything to go by, deepening electricity supply cuts in South Africa are likely to deal a heavy blow to activity in energy-intensive sectors such as mining and manufacturing... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM assets will remain under pressure We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global... 30th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the surge in EM food inflation Aggregate EM food inflation has risen to its highest rate since 2008 and, while it should fall back in 2023, it’s likely to stay extremely high for at least the next four-to-six months. That will keep... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM assets & the risks from tighter DM monetary policy We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at... 27th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles The president of South Africa and the ruling ANC are taking the heat as corruption accusations fly. With political bickering likely to grow, the focus on boosting the economy with much-needed reforms... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
