Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event South Africa Drop-In: Unpacking the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 1666792800 Our Emerging Markets team gave our clients their immediate reaction to the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 26th October. The team addressed key issues, including:
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) While South Africa’s headline rate edged down to 7.5% y/y in September, the surprising strength of core inflation will push policymakers to deliver another 75bp hike in the benchmark interest rate, to... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: sharp slowdown, debt restructuring on the cards Ghana’s economy held up well in the first half of this year but high and rising inflation, combined with monetary and fiscal tightening, means that a sharp slowdown is on the cards. Talks with the IMF... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate surpassed 20% y/y for the first time in 17 years in August and we think that this will prompt the central bank to respond with a 50bp increase to its benchmark... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August essentially reversed the sharp decline in July on the back of weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. We expect external... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political rollercoasters across the region Relatively peaceful election proceedings in Kenya and Angola this month have provided a lift to investor sentiment. But with the respective losing presidential candidates challenging official results... 31st August 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: elections won’t prevent return to slow growth Angola’s elections on Wednesday may be more competitive than ever before, but the ruling party’s decades-long hold on power is unlikely to come to an end. Assuming President Lourenço secures another... 23rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jun.) The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00%... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
