Africa Economics Update Unpacking Nigeria’s economic challenges In the latest of our Election Watch series ahead of Nigeria’s polls, we dissect the near-term economic challenges facing the next administration. Boosting oil production, overhauling the foreign... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s platinum group metal supply to struggle The global supply of platinum group metals is likely to be increasingly strained by electricity shortages in South Africa. This poor supply outlook is a key reason why we forecast the prices of these... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained essentially unchanged, at 53.0, in January, but while the breakdown provided mixed messages, we think that the underlying picture for the manufacturing sector... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt talks in Zambia and Ghana, SA’s energy crisis Delays to Zambia’s debt restructuring threaten to hold up the country’s IMF deal and add to the signs that the Common Framework isn’t fit for purpose. Elsewhere, Ghana’s government appears to be open... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding tilts SARB’s focus towards growth The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) smaller-than-expected 25bp interest rate hike today and large cuts to its growth forecast make clear that its focus is pivoting to concerns about activity... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN back in hawkish mode… for now The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 17.50%, today in a surprisingly aggressive decision. But with incoming data likely to add to evidence of easing price pressures... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity figures out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but we think that weakness in industrial sectors will increasingly dwarf any strength elsewhere especially as power cuts and... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Disruptions worsening underlying weakness in Nigeria Recent data suggest that Nigeria’s economy was struggling even before demonetisation efforts hit activity late last year. And we don’t expect economic news to take a turn for the better any time soon... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) December inflation data out of Nigeria, at 21.3% y/y, came in below expectations, and provided a first sign that inflation passed its peak. Policymakers are likely to latch onto the fall in inflation... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s ruling party policies stuck in old ways At a key policy conference, South Africa’s ruling party officials offered little by way of new ideas to address the country’s mounting economic challenges. And some fresh proposals risk making matters... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What lies in store in 2023, Ghana’s latest debt-move The new year has started with economies in Sub-Saharan Africa bracing for disruptions due to the end of zero-COVID in China and a looming global recession. While these are likely to pass by mid-year... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up for a fourth consecutive month, to 53.1, in December but the backdrop of persistent power cuts, tight policy and a global recession means that we think that... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
