Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, including... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Home-grown and external headwinds to slow growth Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What does Emefiele’s suspension mean for Nigeria? The suspension and potential removal of Godwin Emefiele as Nigeria’s central bank governor raises hopes that there will be a shift away from the current unorthodox and interventionist monetary and... 12th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The fall in the South African manufacturing PMI in May leaves it at a level consistent with modest falls in output in the sector. And the collapse in the future conditions component suggests that... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB warns of higher risk premia, Tinubu takes office One new threat to the inflation outlook that the South African Reserve Bank highlighted at its policy meeting on Thursday was a higher country risk premium which is fuelling downward pressure on the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks in SA and Nigeria still in hawkish mood Central banks in the region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, both hiked interest rates this month and, whereas attention elsewhere is turning to rate cuts, the risks seem to be... 25th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The rand ain’t what it used to be The sharp drop in the South African rand this week is in large part driven by one-off factors, including the news that the country’s government may have supplied arms to Russia and thereby put itself... 12th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt distress across SSA: more than meets the eye Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened across Sub-Saharan Africa this week and are signalling further debt distress, particularly in Kenya, Nigeria and Angola. But we think that sovereign debt... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: the next default domino to fall? Concerns about Kenya’s public finances have intensified with the government recently delaying the payment of public employees’ salaries. Policymakers appear willing to honour public debt obligations... 3rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month was due to a jump in inventories, while other indicators pointed to further weakness in the sector. The country’s severe energy crisis continued... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MPR shining light on monetary policy thinking in SA The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Power cuts ripping through South Africa’s economy Persistent and deepening electricity outages in South Africa are wreaking economic havoc. Almost half of generating capacity was offline this month, triggering severe “loadshedding”. Output in energy... 27th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation shocks, Ghana growth The surprise rises in inflation in March in Sub-Saharan Africa's two biggest economies are likely to put pressure on policymakers in Nigeria and South Africa to raise interest rates further. Elsewhere... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
