Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports nearing a trough Exports from emerging markets continued to be dragged down in May by the impact of low commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But as these effects start to unwind over the second half of... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Not out of the woods yet The rapid appreciation of the cedi over the past month is a positive sign, but it should not be taken to mean that Ghana has successfully resolved its economic problems. The country’s economy remains... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Last growth engine spluttering Today’s retail sales figures confirm that consumer spending growth in South Africa is faltering, weakening the one sector that has propped up growth so far in 2015. This supports our below-consensus... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Still stuck in a rut The slowdown in EM growth should bottom out over the second half of this year, but we don’t foresee a significant rebound in 2016-17. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Long-term outlook still positive Kenya has been in the headlines for all the wrongreasons over the past few months, and its economy is struggling. But while the country faces realproblems, we still believe that the economy holds... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) After a strong start to the year, South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell substantially in May. This underpins our view that continued power disruptions, coupled with an increased... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Another rate hike to shore up shilling The surprise move by Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike its key interest rate by 150bp today, for the second consecutive meeting, was a signal that the new Governor is serious about curbing... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations suggest another currency slump is unlikely Emerging market (EM) currencies were remarkably calm in June despite growing turmoil in the euro-zone. Our synthetic EM exchange rate against the dollar depreciated by 0.5% last month. But the big... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Faltering consumer will drag on growth The dramatic fall in South Africa’s consumer confidence index in Q2 provides yet another sign that consumer spending growth will slow over the course of the year. This is a particularly worrying... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slump in BRICs manufacturing bottoming out June’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the slump in manufacturing across the BRIC economies may be bottoming out. It’s a mixed picture across smaller EMs, with those in Central Europe doing well, but... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya GDP (Q1) Kenyan GDP growth slowed to 4.9% y/y in Q1 due to a contracting tourism sector and tepid growth in the agricultural industry. However, we think that the slowdown has bottomed out and that growth will... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 last month, providing another signal that the economy picked up a little in the second quarter. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Domestic factors dominate African markets This month has seen most key African currencies depreciate and key equityindices fall. But while Europe’s latest crisis may have had some marginal effect oninvestor risk sentiment, the key drivers of... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
