Africa Economics Weekly Kenya, austerity and the IMF, SARB eyeing up cuts? After being forced to withdraw the 2024/25 Budget, Kenya’s President Ruto outlined new fiscal plans today that will go some way towards easing concerns among investors and the IMF. Elsewhere, comments... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained weak in June but improving electricity supply conditions and reduced political uncertainty should support a modest pick-up in activity. That said, the economy... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA coalition cracks, Kenya protests, Ghana debt deal Disagreements between the South Africa’s largest party, the ANC, and its main partner in the government of national unity, the DA, over cabinet posts reinforces our point that the coalition is fragile... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya protests could reignite sovereign default fears The escalating protests in Kenya will add to the near-term headwinds facing economic activity as well as raise further question marks over the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024) After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy slowly turning the corner South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU) will welcome signs that the economy showed signs of perking up at the start of Q2. We think this burst of momentum has further to run, although... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
