Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (August '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dipped to 32.2% y/y in August, confirming the disinflation trend is firmly on course as the pass through from previous sharp falls in the naira continues to fade... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to cut, oil prices slump The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region... 4th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3 After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q2 2024) South Africa’s economy recorded weaker-than-expected growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 which, coming alongside the easing of inflation pressures, further strengthens the case for an interest rate cut at the... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August was disappointing but the survey has been extremely volatile recently and the big picture is that respondents remained optimistic about the... 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and should continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 29th August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking South Africa’s structural growth problem There’s growing optimism that South Africa’s economy is set for a period of faster growth under the Government of National Unity (GNU). And we think a combination of lower interest rates and higher... 22nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24) The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
