Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America better placed to face rising US yields Spillovers from rising US Treasury yields have hit Latin American financial markets harder than those of most other EMs. But the good news is that current account deficits in the region have narrowed... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: rate cuts won’t prevent a sharp slowdown Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to... 3rd October 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reducing dollar dependence won’t deter dollarisation Talk of “dollarisation” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar... 3rd October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (August 2023) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in August failed to fully offset the decline in July and suggests that the sector was as a drag on growth in Q3. Services sectors are faring better... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s botched communications, CLP selloff The mixed messages between the statement and the minutes to Brazil's central bank meeting earlier this month seem to be a reflection of divisions on Copom between hawks and doves. We think the more... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Mexico’s central bank, as widely expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement remained very hawkish. We think Banxico will be the last... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind Brazil’s recent economic resilience? The drivers of Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth seem to be the subject of a heated debate at the central bank – and policymakers’ conclusions will play a big role in determining the pace and... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial vulnerabilities lurking in a handful of EMs Financial risks generally look quite low in most major EMs as current account deficits have narrowed this year and banking sectors remain in strong shape. But there are some areas of weakness... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 & Copom Minutes (September 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 5.0% y/y in the first half of September, taken together with the more cautious tone of the minutes to last week’s central bank meeting, supports our view that the... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s services inflation, forecast changes Even though Brazil's central bank gave a clear signal this week that it will cut interest rates in 50bp steps, there are still suggestions that easing core inflation might prompt the central bank to... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in a little weaker than expected at 4.4% y/y in the first half of September while services inflation remained elevated. Coming alongside strong wage growth and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Brazilian central bank’s (BCB’s) 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.75%) and accompanying statement are likely to dash hopes that policymakers will up the pace of the easing cycle, at least in the... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read