Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: first step towards defusing the ‘Leliq bomb’ At face value, the Argentine central bank’s (BCRA’s) decision yesterday to switch (and essentially lower) its policy rate seems at odds with the goal of tackling the country’s severe inflation problem... 19th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today and there was no further tilt away from the hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. The likelihood that Banxico will begin... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2023) The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to lower the Selic rate by 50bp, to 11.75%, was slightly more dovish than the last one from November. But not enough has changed to... 13th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: positive first steps but more therapy needed The economic reform measures announced yesterday by Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo, including a large devaluation of the peso and fiscal tightening, mark a clear change in policymaking from... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (November 2023) The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in November, to 4.7% y/y, makes another 50bp interest rate cut (to 11.75%) at tomorrow’s central bank meeting a certainty. But with inflation still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) Although Mexico’s headline inflation rate was weaker than expected last month (at 4.3% y/y), uncomfortably strong services inflation supports our view that Banxico’s easing cycle (likely to start... 7th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2023) Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Lessons from Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond arrived last month amid much fanfare, but the reality is that any “ESG premium” looked fairly limited to us. And we think ESG bond premia, in general, will likely... 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (October 2023) The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very strong first half of the year, the economy has slowed sharply. This is likely to... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read